My Knowshon Moreno Blog

Nothing in the sports world is more fun than the NFL Draft ... and nothing is getting any bigger and better. It's probably the fourth or fifth most attractive event now, behind only the Super Bowl, World Series, NCAA Championship football game and the Masters (if Tiger Woods plays).

With 32 teams making selections, there's bound to be a surprise or two or more, and that just heightens the appeal. We're going to predict some shockers for this year's draft ... we're not saying they will happen, but hey, they could.

SHOCKER NO. 1: No team is more unpredictable than the Patriots. Master guru Bill Belichick always has some tricks up his sleeve.

Last year, he surprised by taking Tennessee linebacker Jerrod Mayo at No. 10. He was rewarded by seeing Mayo voted NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

This year, he holds a trump card with his in-demand backup quarterback Matt Cassel. We think he'll send Cassel to Tampa Bay for its top pick, No. 19.

Why Tampa? Because Tampa is bringing in a new GM and new coach, and the new regime will want to make a splash. Also, previous coach Jon Gruden was fired in part for not developing a young quarterback.

That will give the Pats No. 19 and No. 23 ... but wait. By the time they select, the top four linebackers will probably be gone (Ohio State's James Laurinaitis, USC's Rey Maualuga, Wake Forest's Aaron Curry and Virginia's Clint Sintim), the top cornerback (Ohio State's Michael Jenkins) and the top two defensive linemen (Boston College's B.J. Raji and Mississippi's Peria Jerry).

Of; course, not all of them could be gone but Belichick can't take that chance, so he'll trade up with his two picks for San Francisco's at No. 10. Remember, these two teams have traded before and it helped both ... the Pats ended up with Mayo and the 49ers with good young left tackle Joe Staley. The 49ers have a multiplicity of needs, so they'll be glad to get two for one. Belichick would rather have one terrific player than two OK-to-good ones.

The Pats could take Maualuga or Jenkins for more obvious needs and do just fine. But we think Belichick's ultimate shocker will be Jerry, a powerful, explosive DT. New England's defensive line, always the strength of the team, suddenly is getting old ... Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green will be 30 next season, Vincent Wilfolk and Ty Warren 28. Belichick will think ahead and groom a top young talent in there.

SHOCKER NO. 2: The top quarterback prospect, Matthew Stafford of Georgia, will watch unhappily as he plummets.

Stafford looks a bit mechanical and robotic. Size matters in the NFL and Stafford, supposedly 6-foot-3, is shorter than this past season's top two rookie QBs, Matt Ryan of Atlanta (6-4) and Joe Flacco of Baltimore (6-6).

But also, agents for highly picked QBs demand not only the sun and the moon but the entire universe. A career-killing holdout frequently ensues. So why sign yourself up a hassle when he's far from a sure thing?

We think Stafford will fall to No. 17 and the Jets. He's worth No. 17 money, not top money.

SHOCKER NO. 3: The other touted QB prospect, USC's Mark Sanchez, dismayed his college coach, Pete Carroll, by coming out early. Carroll didn't think he was ready.

We don't, either. He isn't as good as one of his predecessors, Matt Leinart, who has failed to impress in three seasons with Arizona.

QB-hungry Minnesota, at No. 22, would at first glance seem a likely destination for Sanchez. But wait. Last year (in the fifth round!) the Vikings drafted John David Booty, who was the other predecessor at USC. So they already have the guy Sanchez couldn't beat out in college.

We think Sanchez will fall to the second or third round.

SHOCKER NO. 4: Ohio State running back Beanie Wells will be the biggest slider. He has top talent but unfortunately, he has suffered frequent injuries his past two seasons; wouldn't you know it, he missed most of the second half against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl with a concussion.

This isn't a criticism of Wells ... it just seems he's unlucky. But teams can't afford the risk of shelling out huge bucks to a guy who has a track record of not seeing the field. Georgia's Knowshon Moreno is just as good as Wells and will be the first running back selected.

SHOCKER NO. 5: Draftniks ... the need-a-life guys who immerse themselves in draft scenarios to the point of obsession ... like to show how smart they are by having a team or two pick a tight end in the first round.

That's a loser's game. Tight end has become a low-impact part of the offense for almost all teams. They can wait until round 2 or 3 if they need one. We don't think anyone will take a tight end in round 1 this year ... if a team does so, it's nuts.

SHOCKER NO. 6: OK, so if the Detroit Lions with the overall top pick don't take a QB ... and why should they since Stafford wouldn't be any better than incumbent Daunte Culpepper ... what will they do?

Well, they won't ... or shouldn't ... take an offensive tackle, either. They already have good-enough veteran Jeff Backus at left tackle and last year they unwisely listened to the draftniks and picked Gosder Cherilus at right tackle ... he turned out to be the rookie flop of the year.

The Lions' defense is the worst in the league. That's what their priority should be. We think they will opt for huge (6-7, 265) DE Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech if he tests out sensationally well at the NFL Combine, and he probably will, to obtain the difference-maker they need. If not, they should choose Laurinaitis, who has been slipping in most projections but would provide the speed, smarts, hitting power and rock-intensity leadership they need.

And remember, you read it here first. If it doesn't happen, forget you read it here first.

By Gerry Storch

Gerry Storch is editor and administrator of http://www.ourblook.com, a political discussion/media analysis website that fills the gap between a blog and a book. In his journalism days, he was sports editor of Gannett News Service.

After an utterly unbelievable 2008 season, which was in by no manner short on thrills, the 2009 college football season is nearly upon us. Training camps are into high gear, and the season is roughly a month away. Recently the Preseason Coach's Polls were released, with the top of the rankings looking very familiar to their predecessor. Defending National Champion Florida is sitting at number one, with Texas and Oklahoma sitting squarely behind at two and three, with USC and Alabama filling out the remainder of the Top-10. All five of these teams are loaded, and it is a very real possibility that one of these five teams will be the BCS National Champion of 2009. So with that said, let's take a look at each of the Top-25 teams, and see what 2009 may have in store for them.

1.) Florida Gators

After winning their second BCS Championship in the last three years, Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow, and the Florida Gators look to add another one to the trophy case. Doing so will arguably make them team of the decade, which most would hardly argue with. Florida has 20 returning starters, and one of the finest recruiting classes in the country, which make for another run for a title very, very possible. Their schedule isn't near ly as difficult as it was the previous year, with the only real challenge coming when they travel to Death Valley to meet LSU. Seriously though, we could be witnessing history when it's all said and done. Tebow could win his second Heisman, and the Gators could win their third BCS Championship in four years. So, 2009 could very well feel like its predecessor, because the Gators are once again the team to watch, and the team that probably won't get beat.

2.) Texas Longhorns

After defeating Oklahoma last year, the Texas Longhorns were denied a spot in the National Championship Game. As a consolation prize, they had to settle for besting Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, which isn't bad either. However, that is the past, and Mack Brown and Colt McCoy are shooting for the moon, as they look to be playing in Pasadena come January. McCoy was outstanding last year, and is now protected by a bigger, more experienced line, which should open holes for a better running game. At times last year, McCoy had to run the ball too often, but that shouldn't be the case this year. Defensively, there will be changeover as the Longhorns lose a number of defensive linemen from a unit that accumulated a nation-best 47 sacks. With all that said though it's going to come down to the game in Dallas where their rivalry with Oklahoma will reconvene. The winner of that game will almost guaranteed a spot in the BCS Championship Game.

3.) Oklahoma Sooners

Despite coming up short in the BCS Championship Game, the Oklahoma Sooners are poised to make another run at that crown. Bob Stoops has reigning-Heisman winner Sam Bradford behind center once again, and deep backfield, the best tight end in the country, and a number of blazers at the receiver positions. The defense is back intact too, with better depth, and more experience from a unit that was the team's weakness a season ago. They allowed too many big plays in 2008, and need to be better in 2009 if they wish to get to Pasadena this January. The most important thing for stoops to attend to is the offensive line, which returns just one starter from last years group, which was scary-good. Bradford was rarely touched last year, but he might have to get his jersey dirty this season.

4.) USC Trojans

It was business as usual for Pete Carroll and the Trojans in 2008, as they won their fourth consecutive Rose Bowl, and finished in the AP Top-4 for the seventh straight season. This was tempered a bit by their loss at Oregon State, which ultimately kept them from competing for a BCS Championship. The unexpected loss of quarterback Mark Sanchez would seem like an issue, but for a program that is as loaded like USC, there are a number of very capable passers just waiting to step up. They have a very experienced, deep offensive line, and the best skill position players in the nation, so whoever is behind center should fair very well. The defense, which was historically great last season, lost a number of playmakers, particularly the linebackers, but has more than enough talent in waiting to plug the holes. The Trojans will challenge for another National Championship, but they will probably end up in their fifth consecutive Rose Bowl, which really isn't all that bad.

5.) Alabama Crimson Tide

In just his second season as the headman in Tuscaloosa, Nick Saban kept the Crimson Tide atop the BCS standings for the majority of the season. However their last two games weren't that savory. Alabama fell to eventual National Champion Florida in the SEC Championship Game, and was then embarrassed by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. What Saban doesn't have this year is an experienced quarterback, but he's got just about everything else covered. The defense will be a monster, and the skill positions, and special teams are dynamic. It shouldn't be overlooked that the Tide lost three starters on the offensive line, which was arguably the best in the nation last year. Alabama doesn't face Florida in the regular season, and another Top-10 finish is very likely for the highest-paid coach in college football.

6.) Ohio State Buckeyes

Last year was a bit of a transition for the Buckeyes, who handed the reigns over to super-frosh Terrelle Pryor early in the season. Pryor had his ups and downs, but the dual-threat quarterback is the firm starter in 2009, and its a matter of time before we start to see the consistency he lacked last season. When this happens, look out. What could hold him back is inexperience at the skill positions. Both leading receivers are gone, and punishing back Beanie Wells is too. The offensive line needs tinkering with as well, especially at left tackle. Think replacing all of that is bad, then take a look at the defense, which won't be as polished or as deep as it was last season. Let's not forget about the looming matchup with USC in the Horseshoe, for the Trojans annihilated the Buckeye's a season ago. There are also road games at Penn State and Michigan and this could be a challenging season for Ohio State. But you know what? I got a feeling that Jim Tressel and Pryor are up to the task.

7.) Virginia Tech Hokies

Could it be that Virginia Tech once again looks to be the class of the ACC? Even after a supposed rebuilding season, the Hokies were able to muster another appearance in the Orange Bowl, where they thumped Big East Champion Cincinnati. Sophomore Tyrod Tyler is the unquestioned starter at quarterback, while Frank Beamer will benefit form having 17 starters return from last year's unit. Taylor's ability to break down a defense with his feet makes us reminisce to the day's of another Hokies passer, while a deep staple of running backs should give Beamer the luxury of being able to run the ball on just about anyone. The offensive line is arguably the ACC's best as well. The only real issue for Virginia Tech is the inexperience of the defense. With that said though, they are still oozing with talent. We'll see just how good these Hokies are early because they'll open their season against Alabama in Atlanta, which is no easy task.

8.) Penn State Nittany Lions

2008 nearly became Joe Paterno's ride into the sunset, as the Nittany Lions' flirted with the number one ranking in the country all the way into late November, before they fell on the road at Iowa. Despite that shortcoming they managed to win their second Big Ten Championship in the last four years. Leadership is something that Penn State has returning this year, which is a very good thing. Dynamic quarterback Daryll Clark is back for one more season, while linebacker Sean Lee leads an always-imposing defense. The problem for Paterno could lie with the departure of three big time receivers, as well as two of his top offensive lineman. That considered, it would be unrealistic for the Lions to put up the staggering amount of points that they did a season ago. They do however have a very easy non-conference schedule, and get Ohio State at home this season as well. Look for Penn State to challenge for another Big Ten crown, with another ten-win season in the cards.

9.) LSU Tigers

Despite a season that saw them get thumped by both Georgia and Florida in ridiculous fashion, the LSU Tigers closed out their title defense with a very impressive demolition of Georgia Tech in their bowl game. From that game came the emergence of sophomore quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who will be expected to take the Tigers back to the top of the BCS ladder. His improvement could give LSU what they need to vault past Alabama in the SEC West. Les miles has the conference's best group of running backs and receivers at his disposal so expect this unit to fly. The only things that could slow the Tigers down for an eventual meeting with the gators in Atlanta is the fact that they lack experience on the defensive front, and that their chief competition in the conference, Alabama and Mississippi, don't have to play Florida.

10.) Mississippi Rebels

Before Houston Nutt took the Job in Mississippi, the Rebels were winless in the SEC. In his first season, the reverend drove his team to five SEC wins, one of which came against Florida in the Swamp. They then finished up a six-game winning streak with a beat down of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. So what will Nutt do for an encore? During that winning streak, quarterback Jevan Snead threw 16 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. Big things are expected out of the young passer, for he is probably the best pro prospect in the nation. Snead is surrounded by a fine collection of receivers and backs, one of which is Dexter McCluster. There are also 16 returning starters for the Rebels, which might just be enough to put them in their first-ever SEC Championship Game. But then again, that just might be a year away.

11.) Oklahoma State Cowboys

Look anywhere throughout this Top-25 Poll, and you'll be hard pressed to find another team that has the firepower on offense that the Oklahoma State Cowboys have. Between quarterback Zac Robinson, running back Kendall Hunter, and wide receiver Dez Bryant, the Cowboys have arguably the best player at their respective position in the country. The problem though for Oklahoma State is that they are perennially one of the biggest risk/reward teams in the country. Yes they put up a lot of points and a massive amount of yards, but they don't play much defense, which is the primary reason they haven't overtaken Texas or Oklahoma in the Big 12 South. For example they scored 41 points against the Sooners, and still lost by three touchdowns. In fact, the Cowboys haven't finished better than 74th in the nation in total defense since 2001. With that said, don't expect them to overtake the giants of the conference until they find a way to stop their opposition.

12.) California Golden Bears

California has proven to be one of the most consistent programs I the nation since Jeff Tedford took over the job in 2002. If not for USC, they very well might have ended their lengthy 51-year Rose Bowl draught by now. With USC reloading, this may be the year for the golden Bears or maybe not. California was hit hard by the draft losing six starters to the NFL, and needs to find a quarterback. There are 15 starters coming back from a nine-win season, so there is quality depth for the Bears. Tedford has been a wizard when it has come to developing quarterbacks in the past, but Kevin Riley has yet to take the proper steps towards making Cal one of the nation's elite. He doesn't have much help in the passing game both as the receiving corps hasn't matured and lacks experience. What Tedford does have though, is arguably the most explosive running back in the country, in the form of Jahvid Best. Best averaged 8.8 yards per carry a season ago, despite dealing with injuries late in the season. He was so explosive, that he had seven rushes of at least 60 yards in 2008. If Cal does in fact overtake USC this season, best will be the catalyst. However if Riley can't take the next step forward, neither will Cal.

13.) Georgia Bulldogs

This time last season the Georgia Bulldogs were a lot higher on this list. In fact, they were the Preseason Number One in 2008. Well, that was not to be as Mark Richt's unit finished at a very respectable 10-3. Now Mathew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno are gone, leaving a number of talented players to fill the roles of the former stars. Richt has recruited well, and the offensive line is a much more experienced group than they were a year ago. The Bulldog's fortunes could rest on the arm of quarterback Joe Cox, who has had experience in the past as the starting quarterback. The defense should be strong once more, with defensive tackle Jeff Owens returning from a knee injury which sidelined him all of 2008. The Dawgs will open up the season at Oklahoma State, and will eventually have to endure the rigors of the SEC, which is no walk in the park. Still, Georgia has yet to finish outside of the Top-25 under Richt's watch; so nine wins shouldn't be a stretch for the Bulldogs.

14.) Oregon Ducks

Changeover is the theme in Oregon, as Mike Bellotti is no longer roaming the sideline in Eugene. Former offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was elevated to the position, as the Ducks look to capitalize on USC going through a change in passers (for what that's worth). Kelly's "read-option" offense has the pote ntial to be explosive, and with Jeremiah Masoli running the show, a third consecutive Top-10 finish in total offense is very possible. Masoli, who won the job amidst multiple injuries, rushed for 718 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2008, and looks to take the Ducks back to the top of the polls. What could hinder them from doing so is the fact that there are only 10 returning starters on this year's team, which is the lowest in the conference. Oregon also gets a tough test to open the season, as they travel to Boise, Idaho, to take on the 16th ranked Broncos on the blue turf. However when it comes to conference play, the Ducks will host both USC and Cal this season. Ten wins and a Rose Bowl bid could be very probable for the Ducks in 2009.

15.) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Paul Johnson's first year at the helm at Georgia Tech was truly an impressive one. He brought his famed "triple option" offense to the ACC with fantastic results. The Yellow Jackets put up ten wins in 2008, and 17 starters back on both sides of the ball, including ACC Offensive Player of the Year Jonathan Dwyer and dual-threat quarterback Josh Nesbitt. Nesbitt suffered a balky shoulder towards the end of the previous season but has looked great thus far in camp. Besides he's just as dangerous a threat on the ground as any of the other four running backs that Johnson has in his arsenal. One thing that Johnson must address however is the defensive line, which lost all four starters from a very stellar unit. If they can fill the holes left on that defensive front, we could be looking at a team that is primed to join the ranks of the nation's elite.

16.) Boise State Broncos

If not for a 17-16 loss at the hands of TCU, the Boise State Broncos would have been joined Utah as the only undefeated team in the nation. With that performance aside, the broncos averaged 49 points per game, and did so with a freshman quarterback and 11 different starting combinations on the offensive line. The experience gained by Kellen Moore coupled with continuity up front should make Boise once again one of the most prominent offenses in the country. What could stifle them though is the fact that they only have one returning starter on defense to start the season. That shouldn't be too big of a concern, for the Broncos usually just outscore all their opponents anyway. With that said, we'll know where they stand after their season-opening matchup with the 14th ranked Oregon Ducks on the blue turf in Boise.

17.) TCU Horned Frogs

Does anyone find it odd that there are there are three Mountain West Conference teams ranked in the Preseason Top-25? The winner of this conference has finished 16th or higher in the polls in each of the last 5 years, two of which they finished 2nd and 4th. Well it shouldn't come as a surprise that the first of these teams, TCU is occupying this spot. The Horned Frogs have been no stranger to the polls over the last 5 years, and look poised to be there once more. There is experience and efficiency at quarterback with Andy Dalton, and perennially one of the nastiest defenses in the nation. The Horned frogs haven't allowed more than 18.7 points and 330 yards per game in each of the last four seasons. What could hinder them though is that they only have 4 returning starters on that side of the ball, but one of them is defensive end Jerry Hughes who posted 15 sacks and 6 forced fumbles in 2008. They also get two solid no conference games to start the season, opening up at Virginia before facing Clemson in Week 3. Look for TCU to win their first MWC Championship since 2005.

18.) Utah Utes

After finishing the season as the only undefeated team in the nation, it was understandable as to why the Utah Utes had such a gripe with the BCS. They finished ranked 2nd in the nation, after overwhelming the powerful Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl. However with great success apparently comes great departures, as Utah must replace both coordinators, their best offensive player (quarterback Brian Johnson), best defensive player (defensive end Paul Kruger), and the best combo kicker in the nation (Louie Sakoda). While they may not be BCS-caliber, they still have the potential of making headway, as they have three tough road games at Oregon, TCU, and BYU, which will go a long way in determining where they will be at the end of the season.

19.) Florida State Seminoles

With a cheating scandal hanging over their heads which could possibly cost Bobby Bowden to vacate a number of wins from a few seasons ago, their was one good thing to come out of 2008 for the Seminoles; they found a quarterback. Ponder proved to be an outstanding athlete that took to playing the position well last season, but Florida State will now need him to take the next step if they want to get back to the days of dominance in the 90's. Bowden wants to run the ball, and it looks like this season he just may have the offensive line to do it. The defense looks to be up to the school's lofty standards again, but the special teams unit leaves a lot to be desired. The Seminoles open the season up against Miami at home, and have tough road games against both North Carolina and Florida to close out the season. With all that said, 2009 is all about Ponder, and whether or not he can take this team to the next level, because if he can't, we could be looking at the end of an era in Tallahassee.

20.) North Carolina Tar Heels

With the ACC throne figuratively vacant at the moment, the North Carolina Tar Heels could be the team that vacates that position. Butch Davis has quietly built a monster, which very well could explode this season. The defense returns 9 starters, four of which comprise a defensive line that has the potential to be dominant. The Tar Heels are solid at quarterback with T.J. Yates, but must find a way to replace arguably the most explosive receiving corps in the conference, which featured first round pick Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate. The backfield could be explosive though. The only other real possible obstacle for North Carolina is ironically the health of Yates, who missed time last season with a broken ankle, and even suffered a thumb injury catching a Frisbee in the spring. Look for the Tar Heels to improve on their previous 8-5 campaign, but don't be surprised if Davis and company are still just one year away.

21.) Iowa Hawkeyes

After being a surprise contender in the Big Ten last season, Kirk Ferentz and his Hawkeye's must find a way to replace all the things that made them great last year. They must find a replacement for rugged running back Shonn Greene, who rushed for 1,850 yards and 20 touchdowns to lead the conference. They must also find replacements for both the interiors of the offensive and defensive lines. The defense does return 8 starters, and if they can muster the type of performance they did a season before where they held the opposition to just 13.0 points per game, then Ferentz could really have something brewing. What he absolutely needs more than anything is for quarterback Ricky Stanzi to take the next step forward, after the first-time starter had an impressive first season at the helm. Stanzi was key in IowaâEUR(TM)s upset of undefeated Penn State as he engineered the game-winning drive. How he handles more of the load this season will go a long way in determining Iowa's success in 2009.

22.) Nebraska Cornhuskers

The rebuilding process that second-year Head Coach Bo Pelini is amidst in Nebraska is proving to be a tedious one, but after an 8-4 regular season, the Huskers pulled a nice upset of Clemson in the Gator Bowl to build some momentum going into 2009. The talks of a revival should simmer down a bit, or at least until Nebraska makes it out of the first month of the season, which features games at 7th ranked Virginia Tech and Missouri. Winning the Big 12 North however is very possible for the Huskers; especially with Missouri likely taking a step back this season. Pelini will have to coax steady play out of junior quarterback Zac Lee, who is taking over for the productive Joe Ganz. Remember, Nebraska has played in only one Big 12 Championship Game in the last 10 years.

23.) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish were 7-6 a season ago, and won their first bowl game in what seems like ages. Things are definitely looking up for Notre Dame in 2009, and their ranking in this very poll is evidence of that. They may not be contenders for the BCS Title, but the Fighting Irish definitely look like they can win ten games this season. First and foremost Jimmy Clausen and the offense look like they finally have experience to put up huge numbers. Charlie Weis has the kind of depth at receiver and running back that he hasn't had since his first season with the Irish. The defense has been making strides too, as they could field possibly one of the best secondaries in the nation. However, there are question marks across both the offensive and defensive lines, where experience is sorely lacking. The kicking games are suspect as well. The overriding factor though may be the schedule; for the Irish face all of their tough opponents at home, and with the exception of USC, they're all very beatable.

24.) BYU Cougars

Last season, BYU reached as high as 10th in the polls before falling to the bottom of the Top-25 after losses to both TCU and Utah. For all the boasting that they were a Top-25 caliber team, they were a combined 49 points worse than their two superior conference counterparts. Fortunately, they have just about all of their explosive offense back intact; quarterback Max Hall, tight end Dennis Pitta, and running back Harvey Unga, who will be responsible for lighting up score boards this fall. This year they get both Utah and TCU at home, as well as Florida State, which could cement the Cougars into the Top-25 this season, and possibly give them a different destination come bowl season aside from the Las Vegas Bowl. They will however, get a test of epic proportions to start the season as they take on 3rd ranked Oklahoma on a neutral field in Arlington, Texas.

25.) Oregon State Beavers

After pulling the upset of season in knocking off number-one ranked USC, the Oregon State Beavers fell one game short of their first Pac Ten Title since 2000. In 2009 for the Beavers to contend, they will have to rely on their offense, and the game-breaking talents of twin brothers Jaquizz and James Rodgers. These two tailbacks are electrifying, and are the prime reason why they were able to upset the Trojans last year. There is however a bit of a quarterback controversy brewing in Corvallis as Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao battle it out. The offensive line will be revamped, but the real questions are on defense, where there are only three returning starters. Rebuilding a defense tends to lead to trouble, and the Beavers must replace their entire secondary. There will also be three new defensive lineman on the front as well, so the defense could be a major detriment for the beavers in 2009.

Joe Martin
http://www.oraclesports.net

Mark your calendars and ice the beer, because the fantasy football season is about to begin. It's doubtful that this season's crop of rookies will make a significant impact on any team but there are a few rooks worth keeping an eye on. If you play fantasy football online and have been working on preparing for your upcoming drafts, consider this list of promising rookies.

Rookie Quarterbacks Everyone Are Talking About

When it comes to quarterbacks, there's a reason NFL.com named Matthew Stafford "the most NFL-ready quarterback in the 2009 draft" (Copyright NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange). As team captain, he carried his team undefeated through the bowl games. He scans the field quickly for openings, and places the ball accurately regardless of distance. His footwork is quick and nimble in the pocket, and he can successfully complete a pass while defenders are taking him down.

On the flip side, Mark Sanchez may bring the Jets a winning season. One of his greatest strengths is his ability to place the ball accurately anywhere on the field. His over-the-top delivery is effortless, and he recognizes a blitz quickly and reacts accordingly. He's accurate in a pinch as well, such as in a rollout.

Of course, any veteran of fantasy football knows to have caution when ranking rookie QBs. To illustrate this point, let's look at some of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Brett Favre, John Elway, and even Dan Marino experienced a boost in their fantasy value after their first year in the NFL. Although Stafford and Sanchez have notable prowess, it's more likely that we'll see their talents reflected in fantasy football leagues over the next few years, but not necessarily during this season. With that said, rookie running backs can be magical in fantasy football (just look at what Matt Forte and Chris Johnson did last season).

Rookie Running Backs Fantasy Diehards are Watching

For 2009, keep an eye on Knowshon Moreno. He can power through the first line of defense, and has surprisingly soft hands that could boost his value in PPR leagues. According to NFL.com, Moreno is an "extreme competitor who can put the team on his shoulders," (Copyright NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange).

Chris "Beanie" Wells is another notable up-and-coming running back. FantasyFootballXtreme.com named him their #1 rookie to watch, and for good reason. He rushed for over 3000 yards during his time at THE Ohio State University. He's known for finding holes in the defense and he has a jarring stiff-arm to thwart defenders and possesses uncanny breakaway speed. Unfortunately, his history of injuries could be a risk factor.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw great things from Donald Brown. He's quite a fast and agile player. Rare to rookies, he has a great sense of balance, which he uses to deceive the defense. He could become quite a weapon for the Colts this season.

Rookie Wide Receivers You Don't Want to Overlook

If you're debating which rookie wide receiver to add to your team, Hakeem Nicks has the goods. He set school records at UNC for receptions, touchdown catches, and receiving yards. He has great hands and can hang onto the ball even after hard hits. He can distance himself from defenders during a breakaway, and is tough enough to generate a lot of yards after catch.

Michael Crabtree has a bright future as well. Originally, he was the quarterback of his high school and went to college on a two-sport scholarship. As a wide receiver, he made 231 receptions in two seasons. His hands are smooth and able to catch the ball regardless of whether it's inside or outside his body. There's no doubt that he's a competitor that will flourish over time.

A Rookie Tight End that Might Deliver During the 2009 Fantasy Football Season

It's a risk to use a rookie as your tight end in fantasy football games, but if you're willing to chance it, then Brandon Pettigrew is your best bet. He set a record at Oklahoma State University for the most receptions. And at 265-pounds, Pettigrew can throw a hefty block. If he's running the ball, he can pull the defenders along with him. All in all, he'll be a fierce competitor in the 2009 season.

Jason McCoy, aka "The Real McCoy", is owner and creator of the fantasy football web site http://www.Stinkball.com.

In honor of the most overrated (Susan no-talent Boyle) and the underrated (Kelly Ripa - she gets skinnier every kid) celebrities on T.V., here are the Susan Boyles and Kelly Ripas of each AFC team.

AFC East:

1) New England Patriots

SB: Benjamin Watson (TE) - Only 22 catches last year for 209 yards. If he keeps this up, newly acquired Chris Baker could have a better year than Watson.

KR: Fred Taylor (RB) - The former Jacksonville Jaguars running back had a career-low 556 yards on the ground, but Taylor could reach 1,000 yards if Tom Brady stays healthy.

2) Miami Dolphins

SB: Jason Allen (S) - Would anybody be shocked if the former Tennessee safety was cut in training camp? One interception last year; Bill Parcells should cut him now

KR: Cameron Wake (LB) - The former CFL star ran a 4.55 40 yard dash at the 2005 NFL Combine and should be another Bill Parcells hidden gem.

3) New York Jets

SB: Bart Scott (LB) - Let's see what Scott can do without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed playing next to him. He is a good player, just overpaid.

KR: Shonn Greene (RB) This rookie rushed for over 100 yards every game last year for Iowa. Green is a sleeper fantasy pick that will force the Jets to get rid of Thomas Jones or Leon Wahingston in 2010.

4) Buffalo Bills

SB: Chris Kelsay (DE) - This overpaid defensive end has 4.5 sacks the past two seasons. If rookie Aaron Maybin ends his hold out and has a good training camp, Kelsay could end up on the bench or cut.

KR: Reggie Corner (CB) - The former Akron cornerback is the favorite to start at nickel for the Bills. Ashton Youboty or Drayton Florence could get caught thanks to Corner (Appropriate last name, eh?)

AFC North:

1) Pittsburgh Steelers

SB: Limas Sweed (WR) - This was the hardest team to pick an overrated player but Sweed had too many drops as a rookie. Big Ben needs him to make up for the loss of Nate Washington.

KR: Rashard Mendenhall (RB) - The former Illinois running back played in only four games as a rookie. If he stays healthy, the defending Super Bowl champions should have no problem repeating with Parker and Mendenhall in the backfield.

2) Baltimore Ravens

SB: Le'Ron McClain (RB) - He was a fantasy stud last year, but I expect big things out of former Rutgers running back Ray Rice this season. Did I mention McClain is close to 20 pounds overweight and Rice added muscle in the offseason?

KR: L.J. Smith (TE) - The former Philadelphia Eagles tight end hasn't had over 300 yards in a season since 2006. I expect this to change with Todd Heap also on the downside of his career. Look for Joe Flacco to use Smith a lot more than McNabb did last season.

3) Cincinnati Bengals

SB: Chris Henry (WR) - Carson Palmer calls him Randy Moss Jr. I think that is a stretch and expect him to have a mediocre year now that Laveranues Coles is in town.

KR: Michael Johnson (DE) - I easily could have put the Bengals whole draft class here but Johnson could be the Bengals best pass rusher in two years. Johnson was a great third round pick.

4) Cleveland Browns

SB: Josh Cribbs (ATH) - I chuckle when kick returners hold out for more money. Cribbs is fun to watch but had only three touchdowns last season.

KR: Alex Mack (C) - He was picked in the first round so why do I consider him underrated? He will be one of the best centers in the NFL in three years, mark it down.

AFC South:

1) Tennessee Titans

SB: Nate Washington (WR) - Many Titans fans loved this pickup and I don't know why. The former Pittsburgh Steelers receiver hasn't reached 700 yards once in his three year career.

KR: Jared Cook (TE) - The former South Carolina tight end is in a great position to learn under tight end Bo Scaife. Cook will be the Titans starting tight end by 2011.

2) Indianapolis Colts

SB: Anthony Gonzalez (WR) - This former first round pick has yet to reach 1,000 yards. We will see what he can do this year without Al Capone Marvin Harrison.

KR: Austin Collie (WR) - This speedy former BYU receiver will be a favorite of Peyton Manning by the end of the year. A dark horse fantasy football pickup.

3) Houston Texans

SB: Matt Schaub (QB) - Remember when the Atlanta Falcons got ripped for trading away Schaub? He has yet to throw 16 touchdowns in a season. If he doesn't improve this season, the Texans need to look elsewhere in the offseason.

KR: Jeremiah Johnson (RB) - The rookie from Oregon should be a nice back up plan for Steve Slaton. Johnson had 18 touchdowns while splitting time as a senior at Oregon.

4) Jacksonville Jaguars

SB: Derrick Harvey (DE) - The former first round pick had 3.5 sacks as a rookie. Will the former Florida Gator approach five sacks this season?

KR: Rashad Jennings (RB) - I expect this seventh round pick to make the team and eventually be a good backup for Maurice Jones-Drew.

AFC West:

1) San Diego Chargers

SB: Craig Davis (WR) - The former first round pick has 247 yards total in his two-year career. Chargers fans will lose patience if Davis struggles again this season.

KR: Jacob Hester (RB) - The second-year running back will be a very good goal line back.

2) Denver Broncos

SB: Josh McDaniels (coach) - He has to be the dumbest coach in the NFL with some of the comments he has made. I expect him to struggle just like former New England Patriots assistants Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis did once they left Bill Belichick.

KR: Corey Buckhalter (RB) - If Knowshon Moreno struggles or gets injured, Buckhalter should pick up the slack.

3) Oakland Raiders

SB: JaMarcus Russell (QB) - How shocking is it that this guy was once the first overall pick? If I am Tom Cable (CABLE GUYYYYYYY) I am starting Jeff Garcia every game.

KR: Michael Bush (RB) - If he stays healthy, Bush could reach 800 yards, eight touchdowns.

4) Kansas City Chiefs

SB: Matt Cassel (QB) - This is a bold pick but I want to see him do it for two years straight. His cast is nowhere near as impressive as what he had in New England.

KR: Zach Thomas (LB) - This veteran is exactly what the Chiefs defense needs. Thomas doesn't have much left in the tank, so expect him to give it one last shot.

The following rankings are based on a fantasy football player's year to end season value. If a draft or auction were to occur today this is the rank and value we place on the players based on their past performance and predicted future production. The basis for the valuations is a 10 team league starting 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 K 1 Defense with a 50% yardage and 50% TD scoring system with no points awarded for receptions. The rankings are updated every Tuesday morning, allowing players to value their teams, analyze player values for trades and plan future moves to get the most return out of your Fantasy Football players.

RANK PLAYER DESCRIPTION AUCTION $

1 Chris Johnson Titans, RB

Faster than a speeding Usain Bolt, more powerful than a locomotive, able to jump tall lineman on a 4th down, it's a Falcon it's a Jet, it's Chris Johnson. $44

2 Adrian Peterson Vikings, RB

Despite having some erratic games and fumbling issues, if anyone's going to have a record setting year in '10, it feels like it could be AP. $40

3 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars, RB

2009 stats feel like it could be his ceiling, even so, no complaints.....offense remains stable and a repeat performance very likely. $35

4 Ray Rice Ravens, RB

His weekly production is as reliable as Rush Limbaugh's 4th donut of the day. $34

5 Micheal Turner Falcons, RB

The Burner......if in the '08 season he was fueled by petroleum products......he apparently switched to "easy bake oven" technology '09.....he'll get it back on track in '10. $30

6 Frank Gore 49ers, RB

The forecast calls for high weekly averages with spotty nagging injuries all season. $27

7 Steven Jackson Rams, RB

This much potential hasn't been squandered since Matt Damon turned down Famke Jannsen in Rounders. $25

8 Andre Johnson Texans, WR

2009 receiving yards leader by over 200 yds. Potential for even more TD's, but his performance is tied to Schuab staying healthy. $24

9 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals, WR

If Warner retires, the Cardinals WR's are going to be like Rage Against the Machine trying to go on without Zach de la Rocha. $23

10 Cedric Benson Bears, RB

The question is....does his deal with the devil extend into the 2010 season? Or does he go back to the Cedric we know and hate? $22

11 Ryan Grant Packers, RB

Not the sexiest RB in terms of flash, but he does his job well......oddly the exact opposite can be said of Megan Fox. $21

12 Jamaal Charles Chiefs, RB

The Chiefs miserable team is not doing him any favors, but he is the kind of guy that is going to find a way to get his. $21

13 DeAngelo Williams Panthers,RB

The perks at a time share pitch are all fun and games, but make sure you know what the Panthers are selling before you buy...basically, a full split of two great backs. $21

14 Vincent Jackson Chargers, WR

Is to San Diego WR's what MadMen is to AMC.....both have made something completely irrelevant worth watching now. $20

15 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers,RB

Although we don't expect him to be unbelievable in '10; being the lead RB in PIT guarentee's a certain level of scoring. $19

16 Reggie Wayne Colts, WR

Like Charlize Theron, were not sure what we'll get out of Reggie next; the hottie in The Italian Job or the psycho in Monster that murders your fantasy season. He killed fantasy owners down the stretch of '09. $19

17 Aaron Rodgers Packers,QB

If his offensive line continues to give him the sandlot approved 5 banana count again next year like they did the second half of '09, we expect him to be the top rated fantasy QB again. $19

18 Drew Brees Saints, QB

In each of the past 4 years he's put up a minimum of 4,300 yds and 26 tds. Not too bad of numbers to build a fantasy team around. $19

19 DeSean Jackson Eagles, WR

Despite the fact that is was a turbulent ride with big swings in production....he had the highest average pts/game among Fantasy WR's last year. $19

20 Brandon Marshall Broncos, WR

It seems like every year leading up to Fantasy Drafts/Auctions, there are a lot of questions and reasons not to go after #15...for now we remain very optimistic on his '10 season. $19

21 Peyton Manning Colts, QB

Is he pimping any insurance companies on TV yet? If not he should, because when he's your FF QB, you always feel like your in good hands. $18

22 Miles Austin Cowboys, WR

We found out that his 200 yd game was not a one hit wonder last year....now we're curious if his '09 season was....if it's not, look for Blind Melon, The Proclaimers, Chumbawumba and Hanson to be knocking on his door for advice. $18

23 Randy Moss Patriots, WR

Don't get me wrong, its not that we don't like Moss' '09 numbers, its just we're kind of left with a bad taste in our mouths with how he went out in his last few games. $18

24 Thomas Jones Jets, RB

If you seek flashy highlight reel TD replays, go elsewhere, but if you like reliable production, you've come to the right place...assuming Father Time doesn't finally take him down. $17

25 Ronnie Brown Miami, RB

He's still young and we love him when healthy, but how many times can he bounce back from injury and be his old self. $17

26 Calvin Johnson Lions, WR

Looking more like a 'second tier' transforming action figure of the 80's......Gobot in disguise! $15

27 Beanie Wells Cardinals, RB

The trend at the end of 2009 season was Wells finally started getting the bulk of the carries over Hightower. If that continues into 2010, Wells will post solid numbers. $15

28 Knowshon Moreno Broncos, RB

With just under 1000 yds rushing and 9 total td's in 2009, he didn't exactly blow us away, but it wasn't a disaster either. Entering his second year he'll be counted on more and should deliver. $14

29 Anquan Boldin Cardinals, WR

If it's not too late, someone call Jeff Probst, Boldin would absolutely destroy the competition in an "injury bug" challenge on Survivor. $14

30 Joesph Addai Colts, RB

Addai's only 26...apparently he, Danny Almonte and Greg Oden all get their fake id's from the same place. $13

31 Kevin Smith Lions, RB

If you can talk yourself into a Detroit Lions RB not named Barry Sanders, then by all means. $12

32 Pierre Thomas
Saints, RB

He plays Suzanne Summers in the Saints aggravating Three's Company sitcom. He is the hottest by far, yet Mike Bell in the role of the butch brunette gets far too much screen time $12

33 Tom Brady Patriots, QB

Like DeNiro/Pacino in Godfather II & Heat...Brady/Moss had some incredible highs, lets hope 2010 doesn't turn into a collect the paycheck year and pump out a 'Righteous Kill' type season. $12

34 Sidney Rice Vikings, WR

He'd still be good, but if Favre retires, we're not as bullish on Rice with T Jack or Gus throwing to him. $10

35 Greg Jennings Packers, WR

His reversal of fortune last season rivals only that of an ameteur competitive eater; one minute focused and poised for a Coney Island Championship, the next he's got semi-digested wet hot dogs & buns all over his shoes. $10

36 Roddy White Falcons, WR

Seriously, Mr. White....Mr. Blonde wants to know, "are you going to bark all day little doggie, or are you gonna bite?" $10

37 Steve Smith Carolina, WR

He's still near the front of the plane, it just feels like he's moved from first class to businees class after last year. $10

38 Matt Schaub Texans, QB

The under appreciated girl in high school who you knew was hot and now you're too late to the party. $9

39 Dallas Clark Colts, TE

Dallas International Airport is the nation's 3rd busiest, Dallas Clark is our #1 ranked TE. Suck it airport. $9

40 Antonio Gates Chargers, TE

No signs of SD going back to a run heavy offense with the aging LT-Style Electric Slider (he don't like that call) $9

41 Vernon Davis 49ers, TE

Has all the physical gifts to be in the movie Avatar, he just couldn't learn how to speak Na'Vi. $8

42 Chad Ochocinco Bengals, WR

He's never been a TD machine; it was always the consistent big yards & receptions that made him special, but with declining numbers in those areas, he starts to look more ordinary. $7

43 Phillip Rivers Chargers,QB

Trending well; since 2007 he's increased Yardage and TD totals while reducing INT's every year. $7

44 Owen Daniels Texans, TE

This ranking assumes a full recovery and return to 2009 form, when he was a top TE. $7

45 Matt Forte Bears, RB

The teen equivalent of going from Prom King to Chess Club in one year. High School can be so cruel. $7

46 Jonathon Stewart Panthers, RB

Would love him if he was the workhorse back in this offense, but might have to wait a little while longer for that scenario to play out. $7

47 Marques Colston Saints, WR

That's Marcus with a "Q". Oh, of course it is Mrs. Colston, what a lovely child. $6

48 Steve Smith Giants, WR

A great #2 Fantasy WR that will give you week in week out receptions and yardage. $6

49 Santonio Holmes Steelers, WR

If Santonio Holmes career parallels Larry Holmes career we believe next season could be the Gerry Cooney fight where Holmes really finds his stride. $6

50 Tony Romo Cowboys, QB

Tony Romo does a little too much peacocking to be a true Cowboy. He fell flat in the final game. He has been a bit streaky but with Austin, Witten and Jones their offense looks to be dangerous. $6

http://www.FantasyFortunes.com

In many Fantasy Football Drafts football afficianados like to see themselves as the genius who spots talent before anyone else, drafts a rookie a few rounds too early, has a monster year from that player, and is praised by his co-managers as the next Mel Kiper. While rookies can certainly provide much-needed help for your team, the key is in not spending too much on them by drafting them too early. Follow along as we cover Rookies in our Draft Day Do's and Dont's Series.

DO...
...watch as many pre-season games as you can! Seeing how a rookie is used by his team will help you get a better understanding of how valuable he is to his team. If a rookie RB is running the ball on situational downs only, this could be a warning sign. However, if a rookie RB like Knowshon Moreno can catch the ball well, run well on every down, and also convert in short yardage situations, and the Denver Broncos try him frequently in those spots in the pre-season, that is a great signal for you.

DO...
...pay close attention to their seasonal progress! A rookie may not get much attention in week 1 or 2, and then begin to take off week 3. Rookies in football week in and week out are sometimes one injury or opportunity away from making a starting spot. Matt Ryan threw a deep touchdown on his first pass as a pro for Atlanta, and began improving immediately, while Tight End John Carlson for Seattle took a while to get going.

DON'T...
...draft a rookie on Draft Day! I am serious, unless you want to take a flyer on a rookie in the last 2 or 3 rounds of your draft, do not draft a rookie at all. It is just too hit or miss, regardless how well you think you know football. I am sure you saw people pick Darren McFadden in the early rounds last year. Then he had foot problems all year, and scored only 4 times, starting only 5 games. The owners who drafted him in the 5th or 6th round were taking a huge chance while more well-known producers were passed up.

DON'T...
...fall in love with rookies who played for your favorite college team! I am a rabid, frothing at the mouth Georgia Bulldogs fan, and would love nothing more than to see Denver's Knowshon Moreno and Detroit's Matthew Stafford have huge fantasy years. But am I even contemplating picking them? NO! Some buffoon will pick Stafford in the 6th or 7th round and Moreno in the 5th or 6th, and I will take time-tested talent instead.

To summarize, Rookies can produce awesome results for you, but the best bet is to pick them up during the year, as their role is better defined for their team. Skip drafting a rookie at all, and enjoy Fantasy Success in 2009. And if you need any information or stats pre-season and all year long, go to the NFL website or check out The Sporting News Fantasy Football guide. I use these religiously, and used them to research this article series.

Patrick O'Neill, an 18 year Fantasy Football Veteran, endorses only one Fantasy Football League

"Would you be interested in a league in which half the owners win? Weekly updated info for starts and sits? How about a whopping 90% payout and unlimited FREE trades? One low up-front fee and no hidden charges?